A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
